Rising by $200 each month, the 200-week moving average has formed an implied BTC price floor since Bitcoin first appeared in 2009.
Bitcoin (BTC) speculators waiting for a BTC price drop of even 35% will probably be waiting forever, new data shows.
In a tweet on Sep. 22, quant analyst PlanB noted that Bitcoin will break the habit of a lifetime if it goes lower than $6,700.
PlanB tracks historical BTC price floor
PlanB was referencing the 200-week moving average (200MA) for BTC/USD. A popular tool in his work, the 200MA has never been broken during Bitcoin price downtrends.
As of Tuesday, the level equated to $6,700 and continues to rise by around $200 every month.
As long as historic behavior continues as it has done since Bitcoin’s 200th week of existence, $6,700 will now form a definitive price floor.
“BTC 200WMA never goes down. BTC monthly close has never been below 200WMA,” PlanB confirmed earlier in September when the figure stood at $6,600.
He added that in March 2017, Bitcoin saw a “struggle” to clear the significant $1,000 mark for good. After succeeding, however, all-time highs of $20,000 arrived by the end of the year.
This month, meanwhile, Cointelegraph noted that significant buy support from whales lays far higher, at $8,800.
Bitcoin price vs. 200-week moving average historical chart. Source: PlanB/ Twitter
93% bullish on Bitcoin price in 2020
As Cointelegraph also reported, PlanB recently called for BTC/USD to begin climbing towards $100,000 as part of his research. His stock-to-flow family of Bitcoin price forecasting models has made highly bullish predictions about the current four-year halving cycle, which ends in 2024.
Bitcoin should be in line to trade at an average $288,000 by that point — an “order of magnitude” more than at present, but so far, stock-to-flow has charted BTC price rises with complete accuracy and its methodology is yet to be disproven.
Meanwhile, a survey about the future of Bitcoin price action published following the 200MA update has attracted 14,000 responses.
PlanB’s Bitcoin price Twitter survey as of Sep. 23. Source: PlanB/ Twitter
The majority — 59.1% at press time — is bullish about Bitcoin over the next year, and also favors BTC over other cryptocurrencies. In total, 92.8% of respondents are bullish when it comes to BTC/USD.